For over a century, the United States has implemented an overarching energy policy referred to academically as the Dominant Model. That traditional policy, developed over the bulk of the last century, has promoted four key fuel resources for power: oil, coal, nuclear, and natural gas -- with the latter three forming the three-legged foundation for the electric industry. The effective intent of that policy has been promotion of a large-scale, national energy industry as the feedstock for economic growth and prosperity.

In the last decade or so, in part in response to negative externalities like climate change and in recognition of technological advances in renewable power production, the three-legged stool forming the basis of power for the Dominant Model began to wobble with increases in solar and wind power production capacity, the closure of many coal-fired power plants as a result of higher coal and compliance costs, and the regulatory and political promotion of broader “clean” energy policies, such as President Obama’s Clean Power Plan.

But there is little doubt that the Dominant Model has now righted itself, given the largely unanticipated need for more power to meet electric demand driven by massive data center and AI-related data-intensive energy processing functions. These projected electric demands portend loads that would dwarf the historic electric demands of a more basic manufacturing and industrial economy, and they could soon outstrip the available electric generating capacity to serve all electric loads, including regular consumers. 

The result is that America’s electric grid needs -- and regional wholesale power market operators are scrambling to ensure -- enough electric generation capacity to meet an ever-increasing demand for power. As noted in an article by Stacey Wescoe, although PJM is confident of meeting regional energy demands this winter, the margin of available power is decreasing, and much must be done to meet electric needs “over the next few years.”

State-level administrations and regulators are likewise alarmed by this potential crisis. Virginia’s Governor-elect has characterized the issue as an “energy crisis.” Similarly, states like Pennsylvania (among many others) are actively pursuing regulatory plans to meet these new load challenges.

Other states, like Ohio and West Virginia, are openly supporting the further development of new natural gas and nuclear power plants. At the same time, the Trump administration is not only pushing to advance nuclear power, but it is actively utilizing federal authority to keep coal-fired power plants open and available. 

In short, to meet America’s so-called modern “energy crisis,” policies and programs at the state and federal levels will continue to rely on solutions that prolong and promote natural gas, coal, and nuclear power as the foundation for America’s electric power supply. The economic and social necessities of available power drive this solution, at least for the time being, notwithstanding the tensions posed by power plant emissions, nuclear waste, and an ever more unpredictable and damaging climate. The Dominant Model is going to be here for a little while longer.